Modelling for large-scale dispersal behaviour of oilseed rape
The aim of the GenEERA research group (generic analysis and extrapolation of oilseed rape dispersal) was to use modelling to assess the dispersal behaviour of oilseed rape in Northern Germany. The models incorporated a range of data including assessment of outdoor findings, satellite image information and mapped landscape correlations and botanical surveys.
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Summary of GENEERA resultsGenEERA I - Modelling for the dispersal behaviour of oilseed rape on a landscape scale - overall coordination Results: The models developed are a suitable instrument for depicting the spread of oilseed rape within the landscape framework of Northern Germany. It becomes clear that if GM rape were cultivated on a large-scale, over the course of decades it would spread beyond the cultivated area. Not all the causes of variability have been included in the model yet. GenEERA II - Modelling to assess the dispersal behaviour of oilseed rape on a landscape scale - Lower Saxony regional study Results: The results produced by the model show that oilseed rape cultivation with a GMO share of 50 percent, and to a lesser extent 10 percent, can be expected to result in area-wide GM rape inputs in conventional fields and wild rape populations. The extent to which this occurs depends on various factors. GenEERA III - Modelling to assess the dispersal behaviour of oilseed rape on a landscape scale - Schleswig-Holstein regional study Results: Initial case studies indicate that field size has a significant effect on GMO presence in the harvested product from conventional fields. With field sizes of around 15 hectares and above, the GM rape level remains below 0.5 percent. Ten metre wide buffer planting zones can significantly reduce GM pollen drift to neighbouring fields. If heavy seed losses occur during harvesting and inappropriate soil cultivation methods are used, even one-off GM rape cultivation can result in GMO contamination of follow-on conventional rape crops for several years.
Results: In the regional distribution of rape cultivation in Northern Germany, there were obvious regional centres, in which rape cultivation reached average cultivation concentrations of 15 to 25 percent of the total arable area. Rape cultivation returned to the same field in at least 80 percent of cases after a two to three-year cultivation gap, leading to the establishment of area-wide, permanent wild rape populations. As well as self-sown rape, field mustard, flixweed and in places wild radish were amongst the most common potential outcrossing partners for GM rape in the agricultural area. These species occurred on 25 to 30 percent of all arable fields. |
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